Israel-Turkey Rivalry Raises Fears Syria Could Become New Regional Battleground

Berlin (Kirsten Knapp) — A recent Israeli strike on a Syrian military airfield has once again raised concerns that Syria could become a new arena for competition between regional powers, with Israeli and Turkish interests increasingly appearing to collide over the country’s future.

The escalation comes as Syrian and Israeli representatives held several rounds of talks in Jordan last weekend under U.S. mediation, marking their first direct meetings in months. The talks were aimed at reducing tensions following recent Israeli strikes and preventing the growing rivalry between Israel and Türkiye from spilling further into Syria.

Tensions increased after Israel carried out a strike on Abu al-Duhur military airbase in Syria’s Idlib province on August 18. Syrian sources said the attack targeted the runway and storage facilities but caused no casualties.

Israel said the strike was prompted by what it described as a violation — or potential violation — of a security arrangement after Syria allegedly allowed Turkish forces to use the airbase. Both Damascus and Ankara rejected the allegation.

The United States, despite being a close ally of Israel, criticized the strike as an “unnecessary provocation,” a position that analysts viewed as a notable political signal in support of Ankara and Damascus.

Israel Sees Turkish Military Presence as a Red Line

Israel considers the possibility of a permanent Turkish military presence in Syria a major security concern.

It remains unclear, however, whether Türkiye intends to deploy forces in Syria on a long-term basis or whether any such deployment was actually imminent when Israel carried out the strike. No conclusive public evidence has emerged to establish that Turkish troops were about to be stationed at the airbase.

Reuters reported in April 2025, citing people familiar with the matter, that Türkiye had examined at least three Syrian airbases as possible locations for deploying forces under a proposed joint defence arrangement. Israeli airstrikes were also taking place in Syria at the time.

The Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) defended Israel’s concerns, arguing that Israel fears Türkiye could eventually use a military presence in Syria as a platform to pressure or threaten Israel.

The think tank also pointed to Israel’s concerns over the close relationship between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and the Turkish leadership.

Analysts See a Wider Strategic Competition

Bente Scheller, a Syria expert at Germany’s Heinrich Böll Foundation, said there is currently no evidence that Turkish forces are actually about to be deployed in Syria.

Speaking to DW, Scheller said Israel may possess intelligence that is not publicly available, but argued that the recent strike should also be viewed in the broader context of Israel’s Syria policy and Türkiye’s growing regional influence.

Markus Schneider, a Middle East analyst at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, similarly described the situation as part of a wider struggle over power and influence in Syria and beyond.

“The attack essentially raises the question of what kind of military order will exist in Syria in the future,” Schneider told DW.

He argued that Israel wants to keep Syria militarily weak because a sovereign state with full control over its own airspace could restrict Israel’s freedom of military action.

“The route for attacks against Iran runs through Syria,” Schneider said, suggesting that a stronger and more sovereign Syria could represent a significant strategic obstacle for Israel.

Turkey’s Growing Role in Syria

Scheller said Israel’s security concerns have become more understandable since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, but argued that Israel is also closely watching Türkiye’s broader ambitions.

She said Israel is aware that Türkiye is seeking to establish itself as a major regional power and that the strike on Abu al-Duhur could also be interpreted as a “clear message” to Türkiye.

Türkiye supports Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and favors a unified Syrian state, including the country’s northeast, where Syria’s Kurdish population is concentrated.

A recent analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace described Syria as an arena for a strategic rivalry between Israel and Türkiye. According to the analysis, northeastern Syria is emerging as an important area where the two countries’ competing visions for Syria’s future intersect.

The International Crisis Group has likewise identified Syria as an important front in the growing regional rivalry between Türkiye and Israel, with the interests of an emerging regional power increasingly confronting those of an established regional actor.

Syria’s Changing Relationship With Washington

Syria’s improving relations with the United States have opened new possibilities for Damascus, despite President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s past links to Islamist circles.

During the summer of 2025, the United States began gradually easing sanctions on Syria. In November of that year, al-Sharaa met U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House.

The two leaders met again in Ankara in July 2026 on the sidelines of the NATO summit.

The United States also withdrew its military forces from Syria earlier in 2026. On August 24, Washington formally removed Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, further signaling a major shift in relations between the two countries.

Despite these developments, Syria appears to be pursuing a policy of greater independence in managing its own affairs, including its relationship with Türkiye.

Schneider said a possible Turkish military presence in Syria should not simply be compared with the Iranian influence that existed during the rule of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Contrary to some perceptions in Israel, he argued, Ankara’s primary objectives are stability in Syria and securing its southern border.

“The idea that NATO member Türkiye would attack a nuclear power such as Israel is far removed from reality,” Schneider said, arguing that the central issue is Israel’s increasingly strategic view of Türkiye as a potential rival.

Damascus Seeks Support From Multiple Partners

Scheller said President Ahmed al-Sharaa is seeking diplomatic and political support wherever it can be obtained.

“Türkiye has emerged prominently in recent months among the countries from which Damascus expects practical and tangible cooperation,” she said.

According to Scheller, the issue goes beyond security. Türkiye wants to expand its regional influence while also maintaining stability along its border with Syria.

This places Ankara in a complicated position: it supports the Syrian government while simultaneously seeking to protect its own strategic interests and prevent instability along its southern frontier.

Israel’s Military Presence in Syria

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024, Israel established a security zone north of the Golan Heights and has since carried out numerous strikes against targets in Syria.

A Carnegie analysis noted that the concept of creating a buffer zone has long been part of Israeli security thinking. However, it remains unclear whether Israel genuinely seeks to keep Syria permanently weak and divided, as some analysts argue.

The FDD has offered a different interpretation, emphasizing Israeli concerns over Syria’s new military leadership and Türkiye’s support for Damascus.

Schneider, however, said Syria’s new leadership had signaled a desire for accommodation with Israel shortly after taking power, despite its ideological background.

“Damascus does not want a war with Israel but wants to restore its national sovereignty,” he said.

That objective, he argued, increasingly clashes with Israel’s military presence and the security boundaries or “red lines” established by Israel, keeping tensions between the two sides high.

Syria Caught Between Two Regional Powers

Scheller said Syria is currently caught between two militarily much stronger regional powers that, in her assessment, do not fully respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Much will therefore depend on President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s diplomatic and political skills, she argued.

The central question, according to Scheller, is how the Syrian leadership can defend the country’s sovereignty against its two powerful neighbors while establishing an independent path for Syria.

She also stressed that Syria’s problems are not limited to military weakness.

The country must first establish a stable and viable political system capable of maintaining internal stability and national cohesion.

Syria’s Biggest Challenge May Be Internal

British think tank Chatham House analyst Haid Haid has made a similar argument.

In an analysis for Chatham House, Haid said Syria had achieved notable successes in foreign policy, but warned that diplomatic achievements alone cannot guarantee stability inside the country.

“The biggest threat to Syria may not be on its borders but within the country itself,” he argued.

Syria’s future, therefore, may depend not only on how Damascus manages its relationships with Israel, Türkiye and other regional powers, but also on whether the new leadership can establish an inclusive political system capable of bringing competing groups together.

For Syria, the challenge is increasingly twofold: protecting national sovereignty in the face of powerful regional actors while simultaneously building the internal political institutions necessary to prevent renewed instability.

The latest Israeli strike and the subsequent Syrian-Israeli talks demonstrate how quickly Syria can become entangled in broader regional rivalries. Whether Damascus can prevent its territory from becoming an arena for an Israeli-Turkish confrontation may ultimately depend on the strength of its emerging state institutions and the ability of its leadership to balance competing external powers.